Upside-downside

The sensitivity analysis for a decision is easy to overlook because we tend to focus on the expected outcome. Perhaps it makes sense to begin with the edges instead.

Upside: If this works, really works, what are the implications?
Downside: If this fails, totally, what are the costs?

After we understand the edges, then it makes sense to be more nuanced about the chances of either happening and start discussing the likely outcome.